Did Dubai Chocolate Really Cause a Pistachio Shortage?
The viral bar did not single-handedly empty the world of pistachios. It landed at the worst possible moment, on top of a weak US harvest and messy Iranian supply, and that is why the crunch is real.
Last updated: September 28, 2026. Figures below reflect reporting as of September 2026. Pistachio markets move with every harvest, so check the linked sources for the latest prices.
What happened, in order
FIX Dessert Chocolatier launched the bar in 2022, officially called Can't Get Knafeh of It. It sold locally until a TikTok video praising it took off. The Guardian reported in April 2025 that the first video, posted in 2023, had passed 120 million views. After that came imitations from big brands. Lindt and Läderach released pistachio bars, and chains including Starbucks, Shake Shack, and Dunkin' built drinks and desserts around the flavor, according to The Packer.
By spring 2025, the Financial Times and then the Guardian were reporting that the craze had tightened the global pistachio kernel market, and that some shops were rationing how many bars customers could buy. It's the same pattern we covered in why people line up for hours for viral food: when scarcity becomes part of the story, demand grows even faster.
The price jump, by the numbers
Pistachio kernel price, US dollars per pound
$/lb
Figures from nut trader Giles Hacking of CG Hacking, as reported by the Financial Times and repeated by the Guardian and Tasting Table in April 2025. Takeaway: kernels rose about 35 percent in a year, and that was before the Iran disruption in 2026.
That rise, from $7.65 to $10.30 per pound over one year, is the most widely cited figure. It comes from a single trader quoted in the FT, and it is consistent with FoodNavigator's June 2026 report that commodity prices jumped by about a third. Claims that prices hit "record highs" in 2026 are unverified: we could not find a published 2026 per-pound benchmark in the sources, so we are not printing a newer number.
Why Dubai chocolate was the tipping point, not the whole cause
| Driver | What happened | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US harvest | The 2024 California crop was an "off" year. Pistachio trees naturally alternate between heavy and light harvests. | <a href="https://www.thepacker.com/news/industry/has-viral-tiktok-trend-created-global-pistachio-shortage" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Packer</a> |
| Dubai chocolate demand | A sudden global surge in pistachio cream and kernel demand from bars, drinks, and desserts. | <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/apr/19/tiktok-trend-for-dubai-chocolate-causes-international-shortage-of-pistachios" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Guardian</a> |
| UAE buying | Iranian pistachio exports to the UAE reportedly rose 40 percent in six months, the bar's home market. | <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/food/2025/apr/19/tiktok-trend-for-dubai-chocolate-causes-international-shortage-of-pistachios" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Guardian</a> |
| Iran conflict (2026) | Exports from the world's second-largest producer slowed, moving overland in smaller volumes. | <a href="https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/06/03/pistachios-see-pressure-from-iran-war-and-high-demand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FoodNavigator</a> |
| Global harvests | Turkey, the US, and Iran all came in below expectations, though the US crop was still large. | <a href="https://www.foodnavigator.com/Article/2026/06/03/pistachios-see-pressure-from-iran-war-and-high-demand/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FoodNavigator</a> |
The best evidence for the "tipping point" view comes from the industry itself. Zachary Fraser, president and CEO of American Pistachio Growers, told The Packer that the down crop year coinciding with the Dubai chocolate craze was "a perfect happy accident" for demand. That tells you the trend hit a market that was already short that season. If the bar had gone viral in a heavy crop year, most shoppers probably would never have heard the word "shortage."
Some pushback is fair. Tasting Table pointed out that supplies from Turkey and Iran were higher than in 2023/24, so total global volume was not collapsing. And in June 2026, Expana analyst Nick Moss told FoodNavigator he would "hesitate to call it a definitive shortage," describing a "tight or cautious supply situation" instead. That is the most accurate way to describe it as of September 2026. It is a squeeze, not empty shelves.
What it means at the store
- Shelled kernels and pistachio cream feel the squeeze first. Makers of spreads, gelato, and bars compete for those, while in-shell snacking nuts are a separate market.
- Expect pistachio desserts and drinks to cost more than their chocolate or hazelnut versions. The price of the nut shows up on the menu.
- Watch for "pistachio flavored" on labels. Some lower-cost copycats use less nut and more flavoring or color, so check the ingredient list if you want the real thing.
The evergreen part: why pistachios were always expensive
Even before TikTok, pistachios were one of the priciest common nuts. The trees take years to start bearing and they alternate between heavy and light crops. Production is also concentrated in a few places, mainly the US, Iran, and Turkey. When one of those has a bad year, there is not much slack anywhere else. That structure is why a single viral product can move prices so fast, and why the next trend to hit pistachios will probably do the same.
If you like the flavor science behind the bar, rich chocolate against salty, savory, and crunchy textures, we dug into a related pairing in why chocolate and cheese work together.
How to buy and store pistachios so none go to waste
- Buy in-shell for snacking and shelled kernels only for baking or cream, since kernels cost more per usable ounce and go stale faster.
- Look for bright green kernels. Brilliant green usually signals an earlier harvest and a sweeter, more vivid flavor, which matters most in fillings.
- Store them airtight. Nuts are high in fat and turn rancid when exposed to heat, light, and air.
- Refrigerate or freeze anything you won't use within a few weeks. Freezing in a sealed container keeps them fresh for months, and they thaw in minutes.
- Taste before baking. A bitter, paint-like smell means the oils have turned, and that off flavor will ruin a whole batch.
Frequently asked questions
More in Trending, or browse chocolate and pistachios.
Sources and further reading
- Financial Times: pistachio shortage reporting (paywalled; figures confirmed via secondary reports)
- The Guardian: TikTok trend for Dubai chocolate causes international shortage of pistachios (April 19, 2025)
- FoodNavigator: Pistachios see pressure from Iran war and high demand (June 3, 2026)
- The Packer: Has a viral TikTok trend created a global pistachio shortage? (May 23, 2025)
- Tasting Table: Is Dubai chocolate really causing a pistachio shortage? (April 30, 2025)
- Fox News: Dubai chocolate sold at Costco sparks potential pistachio shortage
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